Snapshot

Mid-February feels like a hangover after the early-January spike. Lunar New Year front-loading is gone early, spot rates are sliding, blank sailings are up, and schedules are messy with blank sailings changes. Composite benchmarks show global averages now about 25% below the early-January peak and roughly 20–30% lower than a year ago, with most main head haul trades firmly in “post-peak, volatile territory.

For those facing new contract negotiations, take note of the opportunities to pull together a good balanced contract not only for rates but for the other terms and conditions that impact your business and growth.

1. Rates & demand – in % moves

  • Global: Downward falling continues and now about 25% lower the high this past January.
  • TPEB (Asia→US):
    • vs ~30 days ago: down around 15–25%
    • vs ~3 months ago: down 10–20%
    • vs ~a year ago: down about 35%
  • Asia→N. Europe / Med:
    • N. Europe: down 10–20% vs 1–3 months; 20–30% vs 12 months
    • Med: slightly firmer but still downward trend.
  • Intra-Asia: low absolute levels, but frequent swings of 10–15% in either direction.

Demand picture: low-single-digit global volume forecasted vs a big rate reset; this is a soft price and plenty of capacity type of market, a “buyer’s choice. “

2. Capacity, blank sailings, networks

  • Carrier fleet growth in 2026 will exceed demand by a good margin.
  • Note - blank sailings in February have more than doubled vs January, with more expected as carriers try to win with capacity cuts especially on East–trades.
  • Despite that, effective capacity is still projected higher than demand and added new vessels will continue coming online.
  • Alliances and new partnerships likely to shift and change.  News of Zim deal with Hapag Lloyd is a good example.  More pressure on the other alliances to keep up. 

3. Ports, equipment, reliability

  • Asia hubs: recurring bunching and transshipment stress; 1–2-day delay risk is normal.
  • North Europe: winter + inland constraints → higher yard use, variable arrivals.
  • North America: Most US and Canada ports are working well. Exception is Vancouver with rail and weather issues.
  • Equipment: space and boxes generally available; only pockets of 40' HC tightness.

4. Other risk, policy, geopolitics

  • Red Sea / Suez: more services are edging back to Suez; shorter voyages= more capacity and pressure on rates later in 2026.
  • Tariffs & politics: ongoing trade and tariff announcements and changes keep things in flux.
  • Carbon and fuel rules: EU ETS and fuel rules adding another level of additional cost.

5. Outlook & playbook (Q2–Q4 and early 2027)

  • Market is in a clear overcapacity down-cycle; everything is showing the direction of surplus capacity and lower rates well into 2027.  
  • Working view:
    • Q2: soft, choppy, GRIs mostly tactical and doomed to fail we believe.
    • Q3: “soft peak season” – uplift, but nowhere near historic peaks.
    • Q4: risk window for mini price wars if demand disappoints.
  • Shipper playbook:
    • Treat 2026–27 as an opportunity for a multi-year agreement covering your non-rate terms and possibly an index for rates.
    • Use hybrid contract terms for framework + index bands + mini-bids, etc.

o   Hard-code clauses to cover risk of Red Sea/Suez, ETS, surcharges, and service KPIs.

      • FYI – No GRI, No PSS as examples.

 

The procurement season looks strong for the buyers especially the first half of 2026.  Don’t only focus on rate pricing.  Look the other areas that impact your spend and your performances.   This is also the time to press your carriers and NVOCC’s on any IT projects that you are working on to share data and get connected.  Use your contracts.  If you want to use your own contracts but cannot get carriers to agree, consider a neutral style contract like from NITL or the BIMCO contract template that I have used. (BIMCO.org)

You can include many items, accessorials, Freetime/per diem charges, origin and destination fees, etc. into your own contracts. Midsize shippers have had great success using this type of contract with ocean carriers and also with NVOCC and forwarders.  

 We at WOWL hope to see all of you going to TPM26 a week from now, 1 March, Long Beach.

 AndyG@WOWL.io

 #oceanmarket #globallogistics #oceancarriers #2026Ocean #oceancontracts  #oceanprocurement